Velochimp: Astrochimp on Cycling

Word is that saturday’s Time Trial is tough. There is lots of climbing and the course is constantly undulating. There are still many GC positions to juggle, especially in the battle for the 3rd podium spot. Jan Ullrich and Mikael Rasmussen are separated by over 2 minutes. Conventional wisdom says that Ullrich will probably overhaul Ras and take third spot. Levi Leipheimer is hoping to leapfrog Fransico Mancebo to take fifth.

The favorite for the win has to be Lance Armstrong. He does not have an individual win (Discovery won the TTT), so he may want to take the win to finish the Tour. But, Lance’s motivation may be waining. There are reports that he has his mind on retirement, that he just wants to get the race over with. To top it off, he has his kids there at the race. All of the major contenders have conceded the win to Lance already, so there isn’t much to drive Lance other than getting the stage win.

Meanwhile there are several other riders with much more to prove. Ivan Basso is being nicknamed “The Gentle Prince” and everyone is awaiting the coronation of the new Tour King next year. He dramatically improved his Time Trialing abilities and showed that by winning the final TT in the Giro.
Everyone will be looking at Ivan to see if he is going to show the qualities of a new Tour champ. Ivan showed he is no longer afraid of Lance by repeatedly attacking Lance in most of the mountain climbs. So could he go for the win? Possibly, but he will also have to deal with another highly motivated rider in Jan Ullrich.

Jan has a chip on his shoulder. He is getting no respect at home with German media and several former riders and “experts” saying that Jan is over the hill and that he will not win the Tour ever again. That may be true, but anger and revenge are much more effective motivators than anything else. Jan has been showing improved form, and he historically is best in the last week of the Tour. He tried to launch a few attacks in the last few stages, but like Basso, could not shake off Lance. Jan has good form and may want to get revenge for “The Pass” on the first stage. Look for a good performance from Jan with a possible win.