Velochimp: Astrochimp on Cycling

Who are the top contenders for the 2005 Tour de France?

Lance gives No Gifts
First is of course the six time champion Lance Armstrong. Lance comes into this race with not much success this year. He admittedly started his prep late. There is word that they usually start working for the Tour in December, but this year, did not decide on aprogram until the end of January. The late prep showed in some early season appearances. Lance struggled badly in Paris-Nice, epecially in the cold and snow. He did not have a great showing in the Tour de Georgia, where he helped Tom Danielson to overall victory.

The Dauphin Libere race was another sub par showing. Lance fans can take solice in the fact that Lance did not perform well in the 2004 Dauphin, getting beat by Iban Mayo and Tyler Hamilton, but he showed better and increasing form in the Tour while Hamilton and Mayo crumbled.

Late word from the Lance camp says that Lance has recon’d most of the mountain stages and feels fitter than even 2003. Plus he has lost 3 pounds and feels better than ever. Does this mean that we will see a repeat performance of last year’s “No Gifts” trouncing of the competition? Maybe, but he has to contend with the renewed optimism coming from the next set of contenders.

Jan, Alex, and Andreas
Team T-Mobile has probably- on paper- the strongest team in the Tour. They count three former podium placers and some very talented domestiques such as Giuseppe Guerini and Oscar Sevilla. They could cause the Discovery Team the most trouble, especially with the Krazy Kazak Vinokourov. Vino is volatile because he can attack at any moment and make the move stick. Lance was probably relieved to have Vino sitting out last year. He is the fircracker in T-Mobile. He is the type of rider that even puts fear in his own team.

Andreas Kloden had a great Tour last year to finish second, beating otu Ivan Basso and Jan Ullrich. He Jan’s support through the Tour when it became evident that his form was much better. Klodi has been suffereing this spring with some mysterious lack of form… but word is that he is ready for the Tour.

Jan Ullrich looks fitter, happier, more productive, not drinking too much…. Jan is back, and he looks like he is ready to challenge Lance. He did not have to do his usual May/June crash diets to get into racing form. He was in shape at the start of the season and has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder because he does not want to win the Tour next year and have people attribute it to Lance being retired. He wants to beat Lance in his last try. Jan has all of the tools, but not having full 100% team support is not the best when you have to go up against Lance Inc. where the Discovery Team’s sole purpose in life is to have Lance win the Tour. If Vino and Kloden do not give their 100% effort to Jan, he will find himself in the usually second or worse spot come late July. I can’t help but think back the end of the 2003 when Jan was looking considering offers on his next team. He had a few options. 1) continue with Bianchi, 2) go back to T-Mobile, or 3) Join CSC with ol’ pal Bjanrne Riis. Jan chose number 2 and went back to the comfy confines of T-Mobile. Meanwhile Bianchi folded and ol pal Bjanrne got himself another Tour contender in Ivan Basso.

Ivan Basso
Ivan Basso is considered one of the next stars of cycling. He has had a steady progression up the GC every year. Last year, he beat Jan Ullrich to the third spot on the podium. He was the only rider to stick with Lance on every climb, and won the first mountain stage up La Mongie. This year in the Giro, he showed much improved Time Trialing and climbing. He hd the lead in the Giro before getting a nasty stomach bug that made him lose 42 minutes in one stage. The impressive point of that was the fact that Basso did not quit on the stage, but instead soliered on through some tough mountain passes, losing about 10 lbs because he could not eat properly during the stage. He promised that he would win a stage when he felt better. A few days later, he recovered and stormed to win a mountain stage and a time trial. That shows some class and resiliency that is needed to challenge a champion such as Lance. The Giro is not the Tour, but Basso’s improved form in the Time Trials helps him go a long way to challenging Lance. Team CSC is also very strong, featuring some guns for the Team Time Trial and the team is built around getting a victory for Ivan.

The Others
The rest of the contenders are strong , but for some reasons, they may be left to battle for top ten spots and not necessarily a podium spot. There is always a revelation and unexpected results are the expected in the Tour. These riders may have the form to break into the podium, or upset Lance for a win, or they can race for 5th place.

Roberto Heras - has had a quite season, but may be saving his form for a shot at the Tour. Not a good Time Trialer, but it is tough to tell where is for form right now.

Iban Mayo - traditionally in super form for the Dauphin and not as good for the Tour, Iban changed his routine and looks like he may pose a threat to Lance. He imploded last year, but may be out for revenge.

Levi Leipheimer - Lance’s good training buddy. He has better form and a better team behind him this year. Anything is possbile for Levi.

Floyd Landis - switching from super-domestique to contender. He has a good attitude, and is likeable, but this may be a learning year for Floyd. He could be a revelation during the mountain and tt stages.

Santiago Botero - He may find himself being higher in GC than his team leader Landis. He has had great form this year after some lost years at T-Mobile. He almost took the win in the Tour de Suisse. His main job will be to help Floyd, but if Floyd has some problems he could be the man. Look for an epic mountain stage win or a TT win from Santi.

Stefano Garzelli, Franco Pellizotti, Dario Cioni - The three headed monster of Liquigas-Bianchi. Garzelli had to drop out of the Giro, Cioni faded abit, while Pellizotti is gearing for the Tour. They can make some noise, and look for them to battle out a few stage wins and top ten placings.